Interesting 20 minutes with Ben Sheets. The Cubs have a shot, if they pay... More to follow on Tuesday.

Facebook can be a pain in the ass website sometimes, especially when your parents get accounts.  It’s terrible because when you really have important things going on in your life, all you want to do is “chat.”  People find you that you really didn’t want to find you, and it can be a mess.

But, Facebook can also be a really great thing.  Like when you add Ben Sheets as a friend.  Then you talk to him on Facebook chat.

*Side note — (dying laughing) is a macro at ACB.  Everytime you post “lol” at ACB, it automatically transfers to (dying laughing).  So, Sheets and I were actually typing lol.  Just for clarification.

10:19pm Marco
how’s the off season treating you??
10:19pm Ben
awesome
10:20pm Marco
we’d love to have you in chicago
10:20pm Ben
thx it may happen
10:22pm Marco
when you choose a team, what do you look for most?
10:22pm Ben
what do u think is most important?
10:23pm Marco
Either winning or money, depending on where you are in your career.
10:24pm Ben
haha u answered ur own question
most of time team that pays is teams that win.
10:25pm Marco
you’re a force, ben. we gotta get you in chi-town
10:25pm Ben
i love chitown
fave city
10:26pm Marco
all you gotta do is come here, and we’ll build you a statue after we win a world series
10:26pm Ben
(dying laughing)
illll just take a pic with jordans
10:27pm Marco
how’s the elbow feel??
10:27pm Ben
im rehabbing and it feels grerst (great)
10:29pm Marco
i feel you on the rehab
i tore my elbow at 18, so i know what it’s i only topped out at 84, it wasn’t a big loss (dying laughing)
10:29pm Ben
i hope to top at 84
(dying laughing)
10:29pm Marco
for sure, do you usually talk to GMs or is it more your agent?
10:31pm Ben
agent
i dont know hedry
but i did talk to him at a country club in louisiana bout 2 weeks ago
10:33pm Marco
what are the conversations like?
10:34pm Ben
i forgot
drinks on course
(dying laughing)
10:34pm Marco
when do you hope to find out about next year?
10:34pm Ben
about week or 2
10:34pm Marco
are the cubs the frontrunners? haha
10:35pm Ben
no frontrunners
10:36pm Marco
how many teams are calling?
10:36pm Ben
about 100
(dying laughing)
japan
korea
mexico
little league
said i look younger than danny almonte

The guy has a sense of humor, that’s for sure.  ”I hope to top out at 84″ was obviously a joke.

But more impressive, the Cubs actually have a shot here.  He’s going to go where the money takes him, but he really likes the city, and the Cubs could be a contender with him.

CHONE projects Sheets at about 2.3 wins over 114 innings.  Fans suggest he’s worth about 2.6 wins over 122 innings.  Will Sheets pitch to projections?  It’s anyone’s guess, but it depends on what Sheets brings on Tuesday in front of eight teams.  Sheets has the ability to out pitch his projections, especially if he stays healthy and makes 25 starts and goes 150-160 innings.  He could be worth up to four wins, and that would put the Cubs closer to the Cards in the NL Central.  The Cards are probably at 92 or 93 wins, and the Cubs are probably at 85 right now (with projected rebounds), so adding Sheets cuts the lead in half.  Combine that with question marks with Chris Carpenter, and the Cubs have at least a shot in the NL Central.

Fun night with Ben Sheets — Hopefully he shows that he’s healthy, and he comes to the city he loves in 2010.

In the weeks leading up to Opening Day, I will have posts regarding the Cubs 2010 projected finish, as well as projections about other teams in the division.

To read more great thoughts on the Cubs, check out anothercubsblog.net — MB21 runs the site, and there are some great posters over there that will corrupt you, er, convince you to be a better fan.

Andruw Jones, Omar Vizquel, Alex Rios and Juan Pierre have been acquired by the Pale Hose to  play in 2010.  The issue is that it’s five years too late.

These are the WAR for those four players in 2006 compared to their 2009 WAR.

• Jones 2006: 6.1      Jones 2009: 0.8
• Vizquel 2006: 3.4    Vizquel 2009: 1.2
• Rios 2006: 3.3      Rios 2009: -0.1
• Pierre 2006: 2.9     Pierre 2009: 1.8

These players are not very good.  Neither is Kenny Williams, so I guess I shouldn’t be surprised.

Grabow has had trouble hitting the strike zone, as he’s posted a 4.15 BB/9 over his career.  Last year, it was at 4.98 per 9.  His ERA has been low the last two years due to low BABIP levels.  Grabow has never been worth more than half a win, and for a guy that’s set to make $3.75M, that’s a bit too much.

Obviously the bigger issue is that the Cubs don’t have much money, and the $7.5M over two years could be spent much better.  Essentially replacement level, Grabow doesn’t inspire much confidence in the 8th inning.

The better player here?  Kiko Calero formely from the Florida Marlins.  Calero, 34, had a stellar season in 2009, posting  2.56 FIP while missing a lot of bats – 10.35 K/9.  Calero, though, was aided by a low BABIP of .256 and his HR/9 is unsustainable at 0.15.  All together, that was worth 1.4 wins.

Is this what we should project from Calero going forward?  Obviously not, as he is 34 and is injury prone.  If we normalize his HR/9 and his BABIP, you get a nice 3.40 FIP, and that would be worth a little less than win if he pitches about 60-70 innings.  That projected FIP is one run better than Grabow, he throws harder and misses more bats than Grabow, he gives up less homers than Grabow and has a better breaking pitch than Grabow.

What would he have cost though?  Probably less than Grabow, as he wasn’t offered arbitration this off-season.  Could the Cubs have picked him up for half of what they spent on Grabow?  Sure, and they would have used him in a set-up type role.

In a year where the Cubs need to get the most bang for their buck, Calero was a low risk, high reward guy.  An extra two million dollars added to the salary saved from Aaron Miles could bring in another reliever or be put towards a bigger move like Mike Cameron or Marlon Byrd.

Should Fontenot play next to Ryan Theriot at the start of 2010?

Before the 2009 season, I was hoping the Cubs would give the second base job to Mike Fontenot.  I even said that he was a “poor man’s Chase Utley” as he posted a .909 OPS and a .395 wOBA.  In addition to his stellar bat, Fontenot put up a 18.1 UZR/150 in 2008.  After spending a lot of time in the minors, it looked like the “Little Bulldog” was ready for a starting gig.

Jim Hendry rewarded Fontenot with the starting job, but brought in Aaron Miles just in case.  In May, Aramis Ramirez dislocated his shoulder, forcing him to miss almost two months.  The Cubs didn’t have a backup for Ramirez, so Fontenot shifted over to third.  Once the Cubs brought in Jake Fox, Fontenot was shifted all over the infield, often not knowing when or where he was going to play.

Was this an excuse for his poor play in 2009?  I think it had something to do with it, and although we cannot completely attribute his near 100 point drop in wOBA (.395 to .296) to the extra positions, it was a factor.  Fontenot lost over 200 points in OPS, and became your replacement level player at second base.  The one thing that never left was Fontenot’s defense.  He was an average defender at third base, but was above average at second.  

So should the Cubs count on him to be on the heavy side of a platoon with Jeff Baker?  I don’t think he can be counted on in a straight platoon, but I think he’s deserving of some at-bats in 2010.  Here are my projections for Fontenot in 2010:

Since we don’t know which Mike Fontenot will show up, two things are clear — he isn’t as good as he was in 2008 and it isn’t as bad as he was in 2009.  He’s probably closer to his 2009 performance, so the projections favor that way.

In terms of at-bats and plate appearances, I figured that Fontenot will get 311 at-bats, the average of his 2008 and 2009 at-bats.  Over his career, his hits breakdown goes as follows: 63% singles, 25% doubles, 3% triples and 9% home runs.  If he plays to his career norms, that leads to a .764 OPS and a .329 wOBA, and would be worth about two runs on offense.

As far as defense goes, Fontenot has 1,500 innings logged at second base, which is a good sample size for UZR.  His UZR over the last three years have gone 7.4, 18.1 and 1.9.  I’m projecting his defense to be worth 3.5 runs — not as good as his 2008 defense, but better than his defense last year.  As far as positional adjustments, I predicted he would only play second base.  This may or may not happen, but for sake of simplicity, let’s assume this happens.  These numbers lead to a 1.8 WAR.

With the news of an “imminent Mike Cameron signing,” it’s clear that the Cubs will not have room for a new second baseman, unless Felipe Lopez or Orlando Hudson take about $2M this season.  Fontenot is a super-two but his raise will not be significant.  He can still be retained for less than $1M and can be apart of a valuable and cheap platoon.

Tomorrow I’ll break down Baker to see what we can expect out of second base this season.

Could Cameron bring some consistency to the Cubs in 2010?

Per the Chicago Sun-Times , the Chicago Cubs are interested in center fielder Mike Cameron as soon as the Milton Bradley trade goes through.

Cameron, 37, wants to play for a contender, and his connection with former Lou Piniella remains strong.

”I love the guy,” Piniella said. ”Mike is somebody we’ve talked about. I’m looking forward to Sunday, [when team officials meet before] the meetings over in Indianapolis.”

Cameron, the former White Sox farmhand and center fielder, would be a great fit on the North Side.  His glove work would be appreciated after Kosuke Fukudome showed his inexperience in center field last season.  The addition of Cameron’s defense plus moving Fukudome to back to right field solidifies the Cubs defense in the outfield, even though Alfonso Soriano is in left.

Cameron can also still hit for a little bit of power, as he slugged 24 home runs last season with Milwaukee, and 25 in 2008.

If we project Cameron using FanGraphs valuation tools, we get the following:

My projection is based off of his career, and it incorporates some regression in his skills, too.  I believe his power stays almost the same, but his strikeouts increase, his speed decreases a little and he may hit the DL for an injury.  If he hits these reasonable projections, we see that Cameron is worth about $18M, which is better than what Fukudome produced in 2009.

The only negative is that Cameron isn’t left handed, and that the Cubs will start 7 right handers out of 8 positions.  It makes the Cubs helpless vs. tough right handers and could hurt the team if it reaches the playoffs.

The main point, though, is that Cameron is the best on the market, and should be signed for a one-year deal, with an option for 2011.  He should only cost about $8-10M, and it’s money well spent.  Cameron has been ranked a top 10 free agent by many outlets, but he’s the best center fielder out there.  He brings consistency to the position — as right field and center field have been revolving doors for the Cubs for years.

Is this team a better team than 2009?  I still don’t believe so.  Bradley will be moved to Tampa for Pat Burrell and then flipped to New York for Luis Castillo.  Castillo is not better than Felipe Lopez, Orlando Hudson or the platoon of Jeff Baker and Mike Fontenot, but it gives the Cubs a new face, and maybe that’s what the team needs.

Barring any other big moves, this team is still an 83-84 win team right now.  Jim Hendry can improve his squad further, but it relies on salary relief.  So far, it’s been a successful off-season, and hopefully they can keep it going, and make this team a competitor in 2010.

In a last ditch attempt to work in a MLB front office, I have decided to put together a portfolio of sorts.  I have created a few spreadsheets that would show how much value a certain player has.  I will do this on a team-by-team basis, but if I see something of interest, I will post it here as an article.  I hope to have a Google spreadsheet done by the time spring training starts.  If I’m correct, I hope to have a job in baseball one day.  If I’m totally off, at least I learned a little about Excel.

To show value, I will produce something very similar to FanGraphs player pages with a few twists in formulas.  Value will be based on wOBA and Runs Above Average, which translates to Wins Above Average and then to a dollar value for everyone to understand.

I will not exactly be copying FanGraphs formula.  I have reversed engineered their site to my spreadsheet.  In my theoretical season, there will be no pinch hitters because that adjusts the positional value of each player.  Also, I have made hit by pitches (HBP) and walks (BB) of equal importance in wOBA, because a HBP and BB have the same result and shouldn’t be differentiated.  In wOBA, I have also removed reaching base due to an error.  Those are pointless to predict and are luck based.  A player should not be valued based to luck.

I will be posting something close to everyday based on the progress I make.  My first projection is for Kosuke Fukudome, and that should be posted tomorrow.

I’m goin’ in.

Can the Golden Eagles top the Seminoles in the championship of the Old Spice Classic?

Marquette vs. Florida State – Old Spice Classic Championship – 6:30 CT ESPN2

Leonard Hamilton knows that FSU Basketball is synonymous  with potential, and the same can be said about his roster this year.

After finally breaking through and making the NCAA tournament last year, the Seminoles lost leading scorer and ACC Defensive player of the year Toney Douglas.  Now, Hamilton and his strong recruiting class have a lot to work to do to get back to the tournament.

The 2009-10 Seminoles have shown their youth in the Old Spice Classic thus far.  Hamilton’s crew has turned the ball over 40 times in two games which can be attributed to heavy defensive pressure from both Iona and Alabama.  FSU also does not have a true point guard, and that could hurt down the stretch.

The Golden Eagles will put the same pressure on as Alabama, even some full court man-to-man.  This will cause the inexperienced guards of Florida State to make some  mistakes, leading to transition buckets for MU.

FSU Frontcourt

C – Soloman Alabi – The redshirt sophomore center stands 7′1” 250 lbs. and is still very raw.  Alabi has been given great praise from writers around the country due to his athleticism and agility.  His potential is sky high, but he hasn’t shown it yet this year.  Alabi isn’t very strong around the hoop yet, and the lack of strength hurts him offensively.  On the defensive end, Alabi gets rebounds due to his height.  MU should be weary of him around the basket, as he is a shot-blocking machine.  He averaged 2.1 blocks per game last season, and is averaging 2.6 this season.  If the Golden Eagles go small, Hamilton has two choices.  He could put Alabi on Hayward, which would allow Marquette to open up lanes by pulling Alabi out of the paint.  He could also choose to sit Alabi and play a quicker lineup.  Alabi will be a force one day, and the Golden Eagles are fortunate that he’s not at that level yet.

F – Chris Singleton – The former McDonald’s All-American is the ‘Noles best player.  The sophomore from Dunwoody, Georgia has a great skill set.  He can sure fill a stat sheet, as he leads the team in points, rebounds, assists and steals going into the game against Alabama.  The 6′9” forward is also oozing with potential but can make the wrong play on both ends of the ball.  His aggressiveness can get the best of him and he often gets into foul trouble.  For Marquette to knock out FSU early, the Golden Eagles could go at him early, and draw a few fouls.

F – Xavier Gibson – Gibson is the third of the trio of sophomore big men for FSU.  Gibson is 6′11” 240 and his length helps him contribute on both ends of the court.  While he needs to get stronger, he’s a shot blocker, and can finish down low.

F – Ryan Reid – Reid, a 6′8” senior, is a leader in the frontcourt.  A starter as a sophomore, Reid has taken a backseat to the more talented big men.  Reid is a bruiser down low, and can be tough on both the offensive and defensive glass.

F – Jordan DeMercy – DeMercy  sees about 15 minutes a game, and he’s your typical tweener.  He can do multiple things on the court, but none of them extremely well.  DeMercy is smaller than the other forwards at 6′7” 215, but can shoot an open three and takes care of the ball.

FSU Backcourt

G – Derwin Kitchen – Kitchen is in his second year at Florida State after transferring from Iowa Western Community College.  His first year did not go so well, but he’s looked better on the stat sheet this year.  The 6′4” guard can shoot it from deep, and is a  three-point threat.  Kitchen, though, cannot handle the ball like an ACC guard, and it has led to a few turnovers early in the season.  Confidence is key in Kitchen’s game, and if he plays tentative on Sunday, the Seminoles could be in for a long night.  Look for Dwight Buycks and Darius Johnson-Odom to pressure him into a few mistakes.

G – Michael Snaer – Marquette fans have heard this name a lot before.  The 6′5” freshman from Rancho Verde, California chose Florida State over Marquette a few years ago.  Snaer has the ability to fill it up at any time, but hasn’t yet at FSU.  Snaer hasn’t scored more than five points since his 14 point debut against Jacksonville.  He sees about 20 minutes a game, and although he hasn’t found his touch yet, he will want to perform well against MU and Buzz Williams.

G -Deividas Dulkys – The 6′5” guard from Lithuania scores one way – three-point baskets.   The sophomore guard hit a few big three’s in FSU’s win over Alabama.  Hamilton looks to run him off a lot of screens to get him looks at the basket.  His success from deep this year has kept Snaer from getting 25-30 minutes a game.

G – Luke Loucks – The pass-first 6′5” point guard has struggled to start his sophomore season.  He’s been careless with the ball, as he leads the team in turnovers per game, and he has found it difficult to hit shots from the outside.  Loucks will get a chance if Kitchen struggles, but it looks like he won’t get too many minutes.

Hamilton will have his hands full with Buzz Williams bunch who have won their last two games convincingly.  Marquette has the advantage at the guard spot, and while Florida State’s bigs have great potential, they haven’t reached it yet.  Ball pressure and points in transition are the keys for Marquette in this game.  Getting to the free-throw line is a must, and the quicker Singleton and Alabi get into foul trouble, the earlier Marquette can take a big lead.

Another season, another Marquette leg injury. Chris Otule appears to be lost for the remainder of his sophomore season. He should be able to redshirt.

Per Todd Rosiak of the Journal Sentinel, Marquette sophomore center Chris Otule has fractured his foot in practice Monday night and will miss the remainder of the year.

It’s a big blow to the Golden Eagles chances this year, but an even bigger blow to the 6′10” big man.

“We are extremely hurt for Chris,” coach Buzz Williams said.  “His development since the end of last season has been extraordinary. He has grown as a person and that was reflective in who he was becoming as a player. His game and confidence were growing daily, and though his stats do not reveal it, there was a residual positive impact for what he was giving our team on both ends of the floor.”

For Marquette, Otule will be missed in game action, where his ability to rebound and block shots were a key to success.

The team will also miss Otule in practice, as they are now down to 10 scholarship players.  Otule was the only player above 6′6” that logged any key minutes for MU last year.

Now, Marquette fans can only wonder what could have been.

Fans wondered “what if” in the 2007-2008 season when Trevor Mbakwe was lost for most of the year.  Fans wondered the same thing in 2008-2009 when Dominic James broke his foot against UCONN.  While Otule did not have as big of an impact as those two, Marquette will once again lack depth up front.

The injury has horrible timing, as it was after Marquette played so well against Grambling.  Williams declared the performance “the best 37 minutes I’ve seen in Novemeber since I’ve been here.”

This season, Williams and Co. will have to rely on senior Lazar Hayward to do everything – score, defend and rebound while staying out of foul trouble.  The same goes for junior Jimmy Butler, who has been extremely efficient.

Newcomers Jeronne Maymon and Youssoupha Mbao – who have played a grand total of 60 minutes combined in their college careers – will be thrust into bigger roles.  It’s going to be a “learn on the fly” type season for Marquette’s freshman.

The guards need to step up their defensive intensity, too.  The reason Marquette played so well last year was because of the tough perimeter defense.  Darius Johnson-Odom and Dwight Buycks have to play like Jerel McNeal-like on-ball defense to prevent easy entry passes to the low post.

Everyone knew coming into 2009 that the season would be a rebuilding type year and getting to the NCAA tournament would be very tough.  After one practice, it got a lot tougher.

The Marquette Golden Eagles open up the Old Spice Classic vs. Xavier on Thanksgiving day in Orlando, Florida.

Xavier comes into 2009-2010 with a lot of newcomers. Derrick Brown left early for the NBA, BJ Raymond and CJ Anderson graduated and Sean Miller left for Arizona.

But the scrappy Jesuit school in Cincinnati often finds a way to win games.  They have dealt with roster changes since winning 30 games in 2006, yet are always close to the top of the A-10, and always making the NCAA tournament.

After a run in the tournament last year, Chris Mack and his squad are poised for another run.  Their roster may not have a lot of household names, but they will be dancing in March.

The Musketeers’ best player is sophomore guard Jordan Crawford. Crawford is eligible to play after dunking over LeBron James after transferring from Indiana, and is their leading scorer thus far.  He has a very explosive first step, and is very adept at getting his shot off.

Also in the back court, two other sophomores will get some big minutes for Mack’s bunch.  Brad Redford is a lights-out shooter, and shot 47% from three last season.  Freshman Mark Lyons is the starting point guard, and he’s averaging 12 points and six assists per game.  Terrell Holloway was thought to be a big time point guard for the Musketeers, but he struggled with turnovers, and had a 1.1/1 assist-turnover ratio.  Dante Jackson rounds out the group, a solid defender and plays a lot of minutes.

Xavier will come at the undersized Golden Eagles with height and strength in the front court.  Jason Love, a 6’9’’ senior is averaging 12 points and eight rebounds per game in 2009/2010.  Love has never been a big time scorer, but has done good work against his undersized opponents so far.  He also has six blocks this season, and could pose a threat in the paint defensively.  Jamel McLean, a transfer from Tulsa, is finally comfortable in Cincinnati.  McLean is averaging seven points and seven rebounds per contest, and looks like a poor man’s Joey Dorsey.  Kenny Frease is a highly regarded prospect that can block shots.  He had a lot of production as a freshman, averaging 5.4 points and 3.7 rebounds per game in about 15 minutes.

Marquette is a long way away from the experience of Xavier, but has comparable talent.  Fans of the Golden Eagles just have to hope that the talent meshes quickly in Orlando at the Old Spice Classic.