When I saw that the Cubs traded for John Grabow, I thought it was a good move. He had a low ERA, pitched reasonably well vs. the Cubs and I thought he was worth what the Cubs gave up. In hindsight, the move was still good, but the contract he received this off-season was not.
Grabow has had trouble hitting the strike zone, as he’s posted a 4.15 BB/9 over his career. Last year, it was at 4.98 per 9. His ERA has been low the last two years due to low BABIP levels. Grabow has never been worth more than half a win, and for a guy that’s set to make $3.75M, that’s a bit too much.
Obviously the bigger issue is that the Cubs don’t have much money, and the $7.5M over two years could be spent much better. Essentially replacement level, Grabow doesn’t inspire much confidence in the 8th inning.
The better player here? Kiko Calero formely from the Florida Marlins. Calero, 34, had a stellar season in 2009, posting 2.56 FIP while missing a lot of bats – 10.35 K/9. Calero, though, was aided by a low BABIP of .256 and his HR/9 is unsustainable at 0.15. All together, that was worth 1.4 wins.
Is this what we should project from Calero going forward? Obviously not, as he is 34 and is injury prone. If we normalize his HR/9 and his BABIP, you get a nice 3.40 FIP, and that would be worth a little less than win if he pitches about 60-70 innings. That projected FIP is one run better than Grabow, he throws harder and misses more bats than Grabow, he gives up less homers than Grabow and has a better breaking pitch than Grabow.
What would he have cost though? Probably less than Grabow, as he wasn’t offered arbitration this off-season. Could the Cubs have picked him up for half of what they spent on Grabow? Sure, and they would have used him in a set-up type role.
In a year where the Cubs need to get the most bang for their buck, Calero was a low risk, high reward guy. An extra two million dollars added to the salary saved from Aaron Miles could bring in another reliever or be put towards a bigger move like Mike Cameron or Marlon Byrd.
