The Other Side of Things

Should Fontenot play next to Ryan Theriot at the start of 2010?

Before the 2009 season, I was hoping the Cubs would give the second base job to Mike Fontenot.  I even said that he was a “poor man’s Chase Utley” as he posted a .909 OPS and a .395 wOBA.  In addition to his stellar bat, Fontenot put up a 18.1 UZR/150 in 2008.  After spending a lot of time in the minors, it looked like the “Little Bulldog” was ready for a starting gig.

Jim Hendry rewarded Fontenot with the starting job, but brought in Aaron Miles just in case.  In May, Aramis Ramirez dislocated his shoulder, forcing him to miss almost two months.  The Cubs didn’t have a backup for Ramirez, so Fontenot shifted over to third.  Once the Cubs brought in Jake Fox, Fontenot was shifted all over the infield, often not knowing when or where he was going to play.

Was this an excuse for his poor play in 2009?  I think it had something to do with it, and although we cannot completely attribute his near 100 point drop in wOBA (.395 to .296) to the extra positions, it was a factor.  Fontenot lost over 200 points in OPS, and became your replacement level player at second base.  The one thing that never left was Fontenot’s defense.  He was an average defender at third base, but was above average at second.  

So should the Cubs count on him to be on the heavy side of a platoon with Jeff Baker?  I don’t think he can be counted on in a straight platoon, but I think he’s deserving of some at-bats in 2010.  Here are my projections for Fontenot in 2010:

Since we don’t know which Mike Fontenot will show up, two things are clear — he isn’t as good as he was in 2008 and it isn’t as bad as he was in 2009.  He’s probably closer to his 2009 performance, so the projections favor that way.

In terms of at-bats and plate appearances, I figured that Fontenot will get 311 at-bats, the average of his 2008 and 2009 at-bats.  Over his career, his hits breakdown goes as follows: 63% singles, 25% doubles, 3% triples and 9% home runs.  If he plays to his career norms, that leads to a .764 OPS and a .329 wOBA, and would be worth about two runs on offense.

As far as defense goes, Fontenot has 1,500 innings logged at second base, which is a good sample size for UZR.  His UZR over the last three years have gone 7.4, 18.1 and 1.9.  I’m projecting his defense to be worth 3.5 runs — not as good as his 2008 defense, but better than his defense last year.  As far as positional adjustments, I predicted he would only play second base.  This may or may not happen, but for sake of simplicity, let’s assume this happens.  These numbers lead to a 1.8 WAR.

With the news of an “imminent Mike Cameron signing,” it’s clear that the Cubs will not have room for a new second baseman, unless Felipe Lopez or Orlando Hudson take about $2M this season.  Fontenot is a super-two but his raise will not be significant.  He can still be retained for less than $1M and can be apart of a valuable and cheap platoon.

Tomorrow I’ll break down Baker to see what we can expect out of second base this season.