December 3, 2009...6:50 pm

2010 MLB Projections

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While preparing for careers out of school, students do different things.  Advertising majors may make a portfolio of their ideas and skills.  Business majors keep items from an internship to show what they have learned.  Doctors and nurses study for years before becoming professionals.

In a last ditch attempt to work in a MLB front office, I have decided to put together a portfolio of sorts.  I have created a few spreadsheets that would show how much value a certain player has.  I will do this on a team-by-team basis, but if I see something of interest, I will post it here as an article.  I hope to have a Google spreadsheet done by the time spring training starts.  If I’m correct, I hope to have a job in baseball one day.  If I’m totally off, at least I learned a little about Excel.

To show value, I will produce something very similar to FanGraphs player pages with a few twists in formulas.  Value will be based on wOBA and Runs Above Average, which translates to Wins Above Average and then to a dollar value for everyone to understand.

I will not exactly be copying FanGraphs formula.  I have reversed engineered their site to my spreadsheet.  In my theoretical season, there will be no pinch hitters because that adjusts the positional value of each player.  Also, I have made hit by pitches (HBP) and walks (BB) of equal importance in wOBA, because a HBP and BB have the same result and shouldn’t be differentiated.  In wOBA, I have also removed reaching base due to an error.  Those are pointless to predict and are luck based.  A player should not be valued based to luck.

I will be posting something close to everyday based on the progress I make.  My first projection is for Kosuke Fukudome, and that should be posted tomorrow.

I’m goin’ in.

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