January 14, 2010

Interview with Ben Sheets…Sort Of

Interesting 20 minutes with Ben Sheets. The Cubs have a shot, if they pay... More to follow on Tuesday.

Facebook can be a pain in the ass website sometimes, especially when your parents get accounts.  It’s terrible because when you really have important things going on in your life, all you want to do is “chat.”  People find you that you really didn’t want to find you, and it can be a mess.

But, Facebook can also be a really great thing.  Like when you add Ben Sheets as a friend.  Then you talk to him on Facebook chat.

*Side note — (dying laughing) is a macro at ACB.  Everytime you post “lol” at ACB, it automatically transfers to (dying laughing).  So, Sheets and I were actually typing lol.  Just for clarification.

10:19pm Marco
how’s the off season treating you??
10:19pm Ben
awesome
10:20pm Marco
we’d love to have you in chicago
10:20pm Ben
thx it may happen

10:22pm Marco
when you choose a team, what do you look for most?
10:22pm Ben
what do u think is most important?
10:23pm Marco
Either winning or money, depending on where you are in your career.
10:24pm Ben
haha u answered ur own question
most of time team that pays is teams that win.

10:25pm Marco
you’re a force, ben. we gotta get you in chi-town
10:25pm Ben
i love chitown
fave city
10:26pm Marco
all you gotta do is come here, and we’ll build you a statue after we win a world series
10:26pm Ben
(dying laughing)
illll just take a pic with jordans
10:27pm Marco
how’s the elbow feel??
10:27pm Ben
im rehabbing and it feels grerst (great)
10:29pm Marco
i feel you on the rehab
i tore my elbow at 18, so i know what it’s i only topped out at 84, it wasn’t a big loss (dying laughing)
10:29pm Ben
i hope to top at 84

(dying laughing)
10:29pm Marco
for sure, do you usually talk to GMs or is it more your agent?
10:31pm Ben
agent
i dont know hedry
but i did talk to him at a country club in louisiana bout 2 weeks ago
10:33pm Marco
what are the conversations like?
10:34pm Ben
i forgot
drinks on course

(dying laughing)
10:34pm Marco
when do you hope to find out about next year?
10:34pm Ben
about week or 2

10:34pm Marco
are the cubs the frontrunners? haha
10:35pm Ben
no frontrunners
10:36pm Marco
how many teams are calling?
10:36pm Ben
about 100
(dying laughing)
japan
korea
mexico
little league
said i look younger than danny almonte

The guy has a sense of humor, that’s for sure.  ”I hope to top out at 84″ was obviously a joke.

But more impressive, the Cubs actually have a shot here.  He’s going to go where the money takes him, but he really likes the city, and the Cubs could be a contender with him.

CHONE projects Sheets at about 2.3 wins over 114 innings.  Fans suggest he’s worth about 2.6 wins over 122 innings.  Will Sheets pitch to projections?  It’s anyone’s guess, but it depends on what Sheets brings on Tuesday in front of eight teams.  Sheets has the ability to out pitch his projections, especially if he stays healthy and makes 25 starts and goes 150-160 innings.  He could be worth up to four wins, and that would put the Cubs closer to the Cards in the NL Central.  The Cards are probably at 92 or 93 wins, and the Cubs are probably at 85 right now (with projected rebounds), so adding Sheets cuts the lead in half.  Combine that with question marks with Chris Carpenter, and the Cubs have at least a shot in the NL Central.

Fun night with Ben Sheets — Hopefully he shows that he’s healthy, and he comes to the city he loves in 2010.

January 14, 2010

New Year, New Posts

Two weeks into the New Year, baseball fans all around are starting to gear up for the 2010 season.

In the weeks leading up to Opening Day, I will have posts regarding the Cubs 2010 projected finish, as well as projections about other teams in the division.

To read more great thoughts on the Cubs, check out anothercubsblog.net — MB21 runs the site, and there are some great posters over there that will corrupt you, er, convince you to be a better fan.

December 15, 2009

Kenny Williams, White Sox Suck

In 2005, the Chicago White Sox brought a World Series home for the first time since 1917.  The team was then changed in 2006 as the Sox brought in Javy Vazquez and Jim Thome.  Kenny Williams, who is a horrible GM, is apparently still living in those times.

Andruw Jones, Omar Vizquel, Alex Rios and Juan Pierre have been acquired by the Pale Hose to  play in 2010.  The issue is that it’s five years too late.

These are the WAR for those four players in 2006 compared to their 2009 WAR.

  • Jones 2006: 6.1      Jones 2009: 0.8
  • Vizquel 2006: 3.4    Vizquel 2009: 1.2
  • Rios 2006: 3.3      Rios 2009: -0.1
  • Pierre 2006: 2.9     Pierre 2009: 1.8

These players are not very good.  Neither is Kenny Williams, so I guess I shouldn’t be surprised.

December 6, 2009

Why Grabow was a bad move

When I saw that the Cubs traded for John Grabow, I thought it was a good move.  He had a low ERA, pitched reasonably well vs. the Cubs and I thought he was worth what the Cubs gave up.  In hindsight, the move was still good, but the contract he received this off-season was not.

Grabow has had trouble hitting the strike zone, as he’s posted a 4.15 BB/9 over his career.  Last year, it was at 4.98 per 9.  His ERA has been low the last two years due to low BABIP levels.  Grabow has never been worth more than half a win, and for a guy that’s set to make $3.75M, that’s a bit too much.

Obviously the bigger issue is that the Cubs don’t have much money, and the $7.5M over two years could be spent much better.  Essentially replacement level, Grabow doesn’t inspire much confidence in the 8th inning.

The better player here?   Keep reading →

December 6, 2009

Projecting Mike Fonotenot

Should Fontenot play next to Ryan Theriot at the start of 2010?

Before the 2009 season, I was hoping the Cubs would give the second base job to Mike Fontenot.  I even said that he was a “poor man’s Chase Utley” as he posted a .909 OPS and a .395 wOBA.  In addition to his stellar bat, Fontenot put up a 18.1 UZR/150 in 2008.  After spending a lot of time in the minors, it looked like the “Little Bulldog” was ready for a starting gig.

Jim Hendry rewarded Fontenot with the starting job, but brought in Aaron Miles just in case.  In May, Aramis Ramirez dislocated his shoulder, forcing him to miss almost two months.  The Cubs didn’t have a backup for Ramirez, so Fontenot shifted over to third.  Once the Cubs brought in Jake Fox, Fontenot was shifted all over the infield, often not knowing when or where he was going to play.

Was this an excuse for his poor play in 2009?  I think it had something to do with it, and although we cannot completely attribute his near 100 point drop in wOBA (.395 to .296) to the extra positions, it was a factor.  Fontenot lost over 200 points in OPS, and became your replacement level player at second base.  The one thing that never left was Fontenot’s defense.  He was an average defender at third base, but was above average at second.   Keep reading →

December 6, 2009

Projecting Mike Cameron

Could Cameron bring some consistency to the Cubs in 2010?

Per the Chicago Sun-Times , the Chicago Cubs are interested in center fielder Mike Cameron as soon as the Milton Bradley trade goes through.

Cameron, 37, wants to play for a contender, and his connection with former Lou Piniella remains strong.

”I love the guy,” Piniella said. ”Mike is somebody we’ve talked about. I’m looking forward to Sunday, [when team officials meet before] the meetings over in Indianapolis.” Keep reading →

December 3, 2009

2010 MLB Projections

While preparing for careers out of school, students do different things.  Advertising majors may make a portfolio of their ideas and skills.  Business majors keep items from an internship to show what they have learned.  Doctors and nurses study for years before becoming professionals.

In a last ditch attempt to work in a MLB front office, I have decided to put together a portfolio of sorts.  I have created a few spreadsheets that would show how much value a certain player has.  I will do this on a team-by-team basis, but if I see something of interest, I will post it here as an article.  I hope to have a Google spreadsheet done by the time spring training starts.  If I’m correct, I hope to have a job in baseball one day.  If I’m totally off, at least I learned a little about Excel.

To show value, I will produce something very similar to FanGraphs player pages with a few twists in formulas.  Value will be based on wOBA and Runs Above Average, which translates to Wins Above Average and then to a dollar value for everyone to understand.

I will not exactly be copying FanGraphs formula.  I have reversed engineered their site to my spreadsheet.  In my theoretical season, there will be no pinch hitters because that adjusts the positional value of each player.  Also, I have made hit by pitches (HBP) and walks (BB) of equal importance in wOBA, because a HBP and BB have the same result and shouldn’t be differentiated.  In wOBA, I have also removed reaching base due to an error.  Those are pointless to predict and are luck based.  A player should not be valued based to luck.

I will be posting something close to everyday based on the progress I make.  My first projection is for Kosuke Fukudome, and that should be posted tomorrow.

I’m goin’ in.

November 27, 2009

Old Spice Preview: Florida State Seminoles

Can the Golden Eagles top the Seminoles in the championship of the Old Spice Classic?

Marquette vs. Florida State – Old Spice Classic Championship – 6:30 CT ESPN2

Leonard Hamilton knows that FSU Basketball is synonymous  with potential, and the same can be said about his roster this year.

After finally breaking through and making the NCAA tournament last year, the Seminoles lost leading scorer and ACC Defensive player of the year Toney Douglas.  Now, Hamilton and his strong recruiting class have a lot to work to do to get back to the tournament.

The 2009-10 Seminoles have shown their youth in the Old Spice Classic thus far.  Hamilton’s crew has turned the ball over 40 times in two games which can be attributed to heavy defensive pressure from both Iona and Alabama.  FSU also does not have a true point guard, and that could hurt down the stretch.

The Golden Eagles will put the same pressure on as Alabama, even some full court man-to-man.  This will cause the inexperienced guards of Florida State to make some  mistakes, leading to transition buckets for MU. Keep reading →

November 24, 2009

Chris Otule Out For Season

Another season, another Marquette leg injury. Chris Otule appears to be lost for the remainder of his sophomore season. He should be able to redshirt.

Per Todd Rosiak of the Journal Sentinel, Marquette sophomore center Chris Otule has fractured his foot in practice Monday night and will miss the remainder of the year.

It’s a big blow to the Golden Eagles chances this year, but an even bigger blow to the 6′10” big man.

“We are extremely hurt for Chris,” coach Buzz Williams said.  “His development since the end of last season has been extraordinary. He has grown as a person and that was reflective in who he was becoming as a player. His game and confidence were growing daily, and though his stats do not reveal it, there was a residual positive impact for what he was giving our team on both ends of the floor.” Keep reading →

November 18, 2009

Old Spice Preview: Xavier Musketeers

 

The Marquette Golden Eagles open up the Old Spice Classic vs. Xavier on Thanksgiving day in Orlando, Florida.

Xavier comes into 2009-2010 with a lot of newcomers. Derrick Brown left early for the NBA, BJ Raymond and CJ Anderson graduated and Sean Miller left for Arizona.

 

But the scrappy Jesuit school in Cincinnati often finds a way to win games.  They have dealt with roster changes since winning 30 games in 2006, yet are always close to the top of the A-10, and always making the NCAA tournament.

After a run in the tournament last year, Chris Mack and his squad are poised for another run.  Their roster may not have a lot of household names, but they will be dancing in March. Keep reading →